Selected book midpoint
No · —
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Stored reference
No 83.2%
No 83.2%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$20
Liquidity
$264.1
Low liquidityOpen interest
$432.7
Bid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
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Comments
0
7d Change
-2.0 pts
Market data
Updated 25 minutes ago
Aug 19, 26, 4:44 PM UTCJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
Loading top holders
Market depth · No
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves to "Yes" if Climate Central's U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters report for calendar year 2026 counts more than 28 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events.
- The standing record is 28 events, set in 2023.
- A count of 28 or fewer resolves this market to "No".
- The controlling figure is the number of billion-dollar events attributed to calendar year 2026 in Climate Central's report (https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters), using Climate Central's standard cost-estimation and inflation-adjustment methodology; Climate Central now stewards this NOAA/NCEI dataset under the same methodology and original lead scientist.
- Whether an event qualifies, and how events are delineated and counted, follow Climate Central's published enumeration.
- Preliminary or year-to-date counts released during 2026 do not determine resolution; only the count attributed to the full 2026 calendar year controls.