Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastPandemic 61.1%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
96
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJul 6, 23, 9:54 PM UTCJan 1, 50, 7:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
We hope that these will never strike, but life has shown us time and time again that tragedy is inexorable.
- When one comes, which of these will it be?
- In all cases, >10 million people displaced or 100,000 dead, within a year.
- Must also start counting after this question and either be "new" or 10-fold worse than usual; for example, annual fluctuations (even significant) in the flu must be 10x+ worse than normal range.
- This question's close date is fluid; it may be extended indefinitely until criteria are met.
- This list is exclusive and ignores other disasters that would qualify (e.g. earthquakes, meteors, war, and so forth), but is otherwise as broad and flexible within the listed categories as I can imagine: