Will Elon Musk come out against one of the following consensus positions before the end of 2026? (Add answers)
GeopoliticsAIWeather2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastVaccines are safe 25.6%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
35
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMar 8, 25, 1:37 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve YES for any answer if, before the market close date, Elon Musk makes public statements that clearly contradict the scientific consensus position described in that answer.
- Specifically:
- For "the named outcome": The market will resolve YES if Musk explicitly states that climate change is not real, not happening, or not significantly caused by human activity.
- For "the named outcome": The market will resolve YES if Musk explicitly states that vaccines in general are unsafe, harmful, or more dangerous than the diseases they prevent.
- Coming out against mRNA vaccines counts if and only if there's a clear scientific consensus that they are safe.
