Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:02 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens) 57%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
49
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleNov 18, 25, 2:28 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which positive news category will make 2026 world-wide headlines?
Manifold MarketsIs Russia accelerating the climate crisis?
Manifold MarketsIf AI kills everyone, how will it do it?
Manifold MarketsWhat are Donald Trumps real goals in relation with Greenland?
Manifold MarketsAny of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
Manifold MarketsWill Australia enter into any similar agreement to the Falepili Union with another Pacific Island country before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRules
I'll search for current information on these potential end-times signals to provide accurate context for traders.#### Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if any of the following occurs by the end of 2029:
- Climate Displacement: An estimated 30 million people are displaced annually due to climate-related disasters, but the 500 million threshold requires verification through EITHER UN UNHCR reports or World Bank climate migration assessments.
- Resolution via UNHCR Displacement Data or World Bank Climate Migration Reports.
- US Default: The Bipartisan Policy Center projected the "X-date" will "most likely occur between August 15 and October 3" if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling.
- Resolution via US Treasury Department official announcement of default or missed payment.
