Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastGradual resource monopolization / slow squeeze 16.5%+2.6ptLeader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
67
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.7 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleApr 4, 26, 5:28 PM UTCApr 11, 80, 5:17 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
If AI starts to kill everyone with some method and I am still alive and not super shocked, I will resolve the market accordingly.
- It is enough that AI kills the majority of people by the given method A, whereas the minority is killed by some other method, for the market to be resolved in favour of method A. AI mod can resolve it if it wants if all humans are killed.
- Update 2026-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If AI turns humans into robots, this will not count as being 'killed' for resolution purposes.
- Update 2026-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Involuntary mind-uploading of everyone does not count as killing everyone for resolution purposes.
- Update 2026-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If humans and AI collaborate to kill everyone, AI gets credit for the resolution as long as AI is a significant part of it.
