Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jun 5, 2026, 7:26 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastGradual resource monopolization / slow squeeze 22.8%Leader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
61
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 51 days ago
StaleApr 4, 26, 5:28 PMApr 11, 80, 5:17 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Engineered pandemic13%
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If AI starts to kill everyone with some method and I am still alive and not super shocked, I will resolve the market accordingly.
- It is enough that AI kills the majority of people by the given method A, whereas the minority is killed by some other method, for the market to be resolved in favour of method A.
- AI mod can resolve it if it wants if all humans are killed.
- Update 2026-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If AI turns humans into robots, this will not count as being 'killed' for resolution purposes.
- Update 2026-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Involuntary mind-uploading of everyone does not count as killing everyone for resolution purposes.
- Update 2026-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If humans and AI collaborate to kill everyone, AI gets credit for the resolution as long as AI is a significant part of it.