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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. If AI kills everyone, how will it do it?
Manifold Markets

If AI kills everyone, how will it do it?

PoliticsOne-OffAIWeatherGeopolitics53y
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Engineered pandemic 13.2%
Leader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters

61

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 5 days ago

Stale
Apr 4, 26, 5:28 PMApr 11, 80, 5:17 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Engineered pandemic13%

Rules

If AI starts to kill everyone with some method and I am still alive and not super shocked, I will resolve the market accordingly.

Manifold Markets
  • It is enough that AI kills the majority of people by the given method A, whereas the minority is killed by some other method, for the market to be resolved in favour of method A.
  • AI mod can resolve it if it wants if all humans are killed.
  • Update 2026-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If AI turns humans into robots, this will not count as being 'killed' for resolution purposes.
  • Update 2026-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Involuntary mind-uploading of everyone does not count as killing everyone for resolution purposes.
  • Update 2026-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If humans and AI collaborate to kill everyone, AI gets credit for the resolution as long as AI is a significant part of it.

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Rules

If AI starts to kill everyone with some method and I am still alive and not super shocked, I will resolve the market accordingly.

Manifold Markets
  • It is enough that AI kills the majority of people by the given method A, whereas the minority is killed by some other method, for the market to be resolved in favour of method A.
  • AI mod can resolve it if it wants if all humans are killed.
  • Update 2026-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If AI turns humans into robots, this will not count as being 'killed' for resolution purposes.
  • Update 2026-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Involuntary mind-uploading of everyone does not count as killing everyone for resolution purposes.
  • Update 2026-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If humans and AI collaborate to kill everyone, AI gets credit for the resolution as long as AI is a significant part of it.