Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
0.001M-0.1M 41.5%Leader of 6 outcomes
0.001M-0.1M 41.5%Forecasters
23
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJun 6, 24, 8:26 AM UTCJan 1, 40, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
Criteria for Resolution:
- Intentional Killing: The deaths must be intentional, to the best of our judgment.
- Incidental or unintended consequences of AI actions, such as side effects from a drug developed by AI, do not qualify.
- Event Definition:
- - The event may have long-lasting effects, but it must originate from a more or less instantaneous and well-defined initial action by the AI.
- - The event can span a longer timeframe if the initial AI action directly leads to the deaths over time (e.g., an AI-initiated blackmailing campaign resulting in deaths occurring up to a year after the initial action).
