Will there be a prion disease outbreak in the United States before 2028 that kills more than 24 people?
Health & MedicineOne-Off1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.6%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleOct 7, 24, 9:42 PM UTCJan 2, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Like this one in the UK in the 80s and 90s: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_BSE_outbreak
- Must be above base rate in some sense to be an outbreak.
