Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 77.9%
Forecasters
37
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleApr 28, 24, 11:11 AM UTCDec 31, 45, 7:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Currently all prion diseases are considered fatal and incurable.
- I'll resolve yes if, by the end of 31 December 2045, there's a human being who was previously infected with prion disease (previously fatal and incurable) and has been cured of it, according to widespread medical consensus.
- Even if there are lingering side effects, I will resolve YES if the consensus is that death of said disease is no longer inevitable for that person.
- ("Inevitable" as in "the person is certain to die of said disease unless something else kills them first")
- If a human has definitely been cured but the relevant medical intervention is hard or impossible to replicate, it's enough to resolve YES anyway.
- Something like the Berlin patient (but for a prion disease instead of HIV) would trigger a YES resolution.
