If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?
AIOne-OffRegulation
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 68.5%
Yes 68.5%Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 34 minutes ago
Aug 8, 24, 5:43 PM UTCJan 2, 50, 7:59 AM UTC
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This question originally appeared in a study by the Forecasting Research Institute, which explored a method for identifying forecasting questions that AI experts found to be the best indicators of catastrophic risk due to AI.
- The findings of the study are the subject of a forthcoming report titled “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics”.
- The questions appear here only slightly edited from their initial form in the study.
- This is one of several questions that experts found most informative.
- We’re excited to see how the forecasts of the Manifold community compare to those found in the study.
- We will link the report here when it is released this month.
