Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.8%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 56 minutes ago
LaggingNov 24, 23, 5:25 PM UTCJan 1, 40, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question.
- (i.e. "I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.")
- This will likely not occur until many years after Lyme disease is no longer a subject of active political contention, and motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down.
- I will be conferring with the community extensivly before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another.
- (For comparison, the level of evidence in favor of anthropogenic climate change would be sufficient, despite the existance of a few doubts here and there.)
- If we never reach a point where I can safely be that confident either way, it'll remain open indefinitely.
