Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 5, 24, 8:45 PM UTCJan 1, 41, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Did/will H5N1 come from a laboratory?
Manifold MarketsDid COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Isaac King's "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?" market resolve?
Manifold MarketsDid Lyme disease come from a laboratory?
Manifold MarketsAny of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
Manifold MarketsDo short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question.
- (i.e. "I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.")
- This will likely not occur until many years after HIV is no longer a subject of active political contention, motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down, and a scientific consensus has emerged on the subject.
- I will be conferring with the community extensively before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another.
- (For comparison, the level of evidence in favor of anthropogenic climate change would be sufficient, despite the existence of a few doubts here and there.)
- If we never reach a point where I can safely be that confident either way, it'll remain open indefinitely.
