Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.5%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleMay 7, 26, 1:32 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
PolymarketWill there be a case of polio in the USA this year?
KalshiWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
KalshiRules
Extending Ms ( https://manifold.markets/bagofsprite/hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026-polymar?r=S3Jvbm9zMTc3MA ) 2026 terminating market (mirroring Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026) ) to include 2027.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- (Twenty Twenty SEVEN) Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications.
- A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.