Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 21, 2026, 10:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastYes 4.6%
Forecasters
56
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 days ago
StaleApr 7, 22, 5:35 PMApr 15, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes5%
Volume trend
$1.0kJul 174d of dataJul 21
Related Markets
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
$41.8KBefore 2027: 7%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
$25.2KDecember 31: 6%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETAre the telepathy tapes actually documenting psychic abilities? (scientific consensus by 2026)
$4.1KYes: 1%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
$2.6KYes: 6%KALSHI
KALSHI
Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?
$1.5KOklo: 19%KALSHI
KALSHIHow many critical severity cyber vulnerabilities will be found in December 2026?
$1.2K≥100: 95.3%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Related News
Galaxy Digital opens $5M fund for Bitcoin quantum security researchCrypto News
Claude's Fable 5 just solved an 87-year-old math problem, and it matters for bitcoinCoindesk
Google DeepMind, Isomorphic Labs Unveil AI-Powered Bioresilience PlanBlockchain.News
NVIDIA's Ising Decoder Slashes Color Code Errors 300xBlockchain.News
NVIDIA BioNeMo Toolkit Accelerates AI-Driven Drug DiscoveryBlockchain.NewsNvidia NVSHMEM Boosts GROMACS GPU Scaling for Molecular DynamicsBlockchain.NewsRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.