KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSettled by the venue, market by market
Resolved: Aug 1, 2026, 10:32 PM
This event has no single winner. The venue settled each market separately; each market shows its own result.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Aug 1, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Above 144%
Above 1393%
Above 1510%
Above 171%
Above 13Lost
Above 14Lost
Above 15Lost
Above 16Lost
Above 20Lost
Above 19Lost
Above 18Lost
Above 17Lost
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have the named outcome launches in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Federal Aviation Administration
- For the purpose of this market, qualifying commercial space launches will be based on the documented count from the FAA Commercial Space Data list during the time period.
