Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 31, 2026, 1:49 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
>1.49ºC · —
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Stored reference
>1.49ºC 41.2%Leader of 6 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
>1.49ºC 41.2%Market quality
37 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$664.1
Liquidity
$6.6K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$4.6K
Bid / Ask
— / —
>1.49ºCSpread
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Comments
0
Market data
Updated 46 minutes ago
LaggingSep 30, 26, 1:56 PM UTCDec 2, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · >1.49ºC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2026 when it is released.
- An anomaly within a named bracket for October 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for October 2026 is later revised.
- The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Oct" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
- If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
- If no information for October 2026 is provided by NASA by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.