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Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jul 10, 2026, 12:35 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2

Current community forecast

Yes 38.3%

Forecasters

242

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 16 days ago

Stale

Apr 9, 23, 5:43 AMJan 1, 30, 8:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Yes38%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.

Volume trend

$332

Jul 92d of dataJul 10

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Rules

Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.