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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. AI
  3. Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?
Manifold Markets

Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?

AITechScienceYearly23y
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
2026 0%
Leader of 15 outcomes
Forecasters

31

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 5 days ago

Stale
Aug 11, 25, 4:11 PMJan 1, 50, 10:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

202721%

Rules

The definition of major conjecture for the purposes of this market is one of the 129 "open problems" in this Wikipedia article as of 1 August 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conjectures

Manifold Markets
  • If a valid proof found by an AI is posted, then all years after the posting date will resolve YES.
  • The proof has to be accepted by a majority of the mathematical community (this market will stay open for a significant amount of time after a claimed proof to allow for disputes to arise).
  • It does not count if the problem was solved by a human beforehand.
  • If the proof was a human-AI collaboration, that is likely not sufficient for a YES-resolution, unless an overwhelming amount of the work (>90%) was done by the AI.
  • If the AI produces an essentially complete proof, but humans reformulate the proof into easier-to-read prose, that would be sufficient.

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How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?

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Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

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Rules

The definition of major conjecture for the purposes of this market is one of the 129 "open problems" in this Wikipedia article as of 1 August 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conjectures

Manifold Markets
  • If a valid proof found by an AI is posted, then all years after the posting date will resolve YES.
  • The proof has to be accepted by a majority of the mathematical community (this market will stay open for a significant amount of time after a claimed proof to allow for disputes to arise).
  • It does not count if the problem was solved by a human beforehand.
  • If the proof was a human-AI collaboration, that is likely not sufficient for a YES-resolution, unless an overwhelming amount of the work (>90%) was done by the AI.
  • If the AI produces an essentially complete proof, but humans reformulate the proof into easier-to-read prose, that would be sufficient.