Current community forecast
Yes 53%
Forecasters
251
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleApr 9, 23, 2:06 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a human walk on the moon again before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a human walk on the Moon again before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if a human sets foot on the moon after 2000 but before 2030.
- I keep an ordered list of human moon landing markets here: @/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again
- @/Mqrius/will-spacexs-hls-uncrewed-demo-laun
- @/Mqrius/will-two-starships-dock-in-orbit-be-4762f93e6882
- Artemis 2 timeline: @/Mqrius/will-artemis-ii-launch-before-2026
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt87.1%
- OpenAI-1.0pt10.9%
- Google-0.1pt2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.6M
- 24h Vol
- $124.4K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes59.4%
- No40.6%
- Total Vol
- $178.5K
- 24h Vol
- $45.5K
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
- October 3197%
- September 26+21.5pt87%
- Successful splash down?+1.0pt84%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.6pt60.2%
- SpaceX-4.5pt37.8%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8+3.0pt88%
- Above 9-15.0pt57%
- Above 10-10.0pt23%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Next Grok Model (4.7+) released on?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a human walk on the moon again before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 53% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a human walk on the moon again before 2030? resolve?
- Will a human walk on the moon again before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will a human walk on the moon again before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if a human sets foot on the moon after 2000 but before 2030.