Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 4:02 AM UTC ยท policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Yes 57.6%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMar 28, 24, 2:26 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Manned mission could be from any country, private, public etc.
