Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 52.3%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleAug 1, 26, 4:23 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a human walk on the moon again before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a human walk on the Moon again before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a human walk on the Moon again before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if a human sets foot on the moon after 2000 but before 2030.
- I keep an ordered list of human moon landing markets here: @/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again
- @/Mqrius/will-spacexs-hls-uncrewed-demo-laun
- @/Mqrius/will-two-starships-dock-in-orbit-be-4762f93e6882
- Artemis 2 timeline: @/Mqrius/will-artemis-ii-launch-before-2026
- (Identical market to: source market)
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a human walk on the moon again before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 52% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a human walk on the moon again before 2030? resolve?
- Will a human walk on the moon again before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will a human walk on the moon again before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if a human sets foot on the moon after 2000 but before 2030.