Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jun 15, 2026, 4:44 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastYes 9%
Forecasters
106
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 27 days ago
StaleFeb 18, 26, 1:38 AMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes9%
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Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.