Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 1.6%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 days ago
StaleApr 3, 26, 7:40 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes2%
Related Markets
Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?
$500Yes: 4.4%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Pope Leo XIV visit first the U.S. or Ukraine?
$112.7U.S.: 55%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill a Muslim Majority Country Lose Its Majority Before 2040?
$87.8Yes: 63%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
$173.7China: 45%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
$9.9KYes: 2%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
$331Uruguay: 84%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Related News
Iran war shifts tourism, Polymarket trims China-Taiwan invasion odds to 4.25%Blockchain.News
Iran control stance hits Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes slips to 30.5%Blockchain.News
Zelenskyy touts repeat Ufa strike as Polymarket lifts Eizenkot to 40.55%Blockchain.News
Katz warns force vs Iran as Polymarket puts Dec 2026 US-Iran deal at 43.5%Blockchain.News
Reports of US strikes in Iran push Polymarket regime-fall odds to 0.15%Blockchain.News
US strikes in Iran shift Polymarket travel bets, Trump down to 15%Blockchain.NewsRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.