Religion | Prediction Markets

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

5mo

98%

Yes

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$64.8M

24h Vol$19.5K

POLYMARKET

Who will the next Pope be?

0.6%43y

Pierbattista Pizzaballa

+0.6%5%

Pietro Parolin

+0.8%5%

Anders Arborelius

+1.0%4%

+4 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$134.1K

24h Vol$251

KALSHI

Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?

3mo

96.1%

Yes

3.9%

Community forecast42 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038

11y

85.6%

Yes

14.4%

Community forecast18 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years?

96%

Yes

Community forecast54 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Christian Affiliation in the United States Increase Over Five Years?

72.3%

Yes

27.7%

Community forecast96 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Jordan Peterson becomes an Eastern Orthodox Christian before 2030

89.1%

Yes

10.9%

Community forecast12 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?

98.2%

Yes

1.8%

Community forecast192 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the LDS church continue to prohibit coffee by 2030

Yes

91%

Community forecast38 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be a Second Coming of Christ by 2100?

74y

94.1%

Yes

5.9%

Community forecast25 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Pope Leo XIV cease to be pope before 2030?

84.5%

Yes

15.5%

Community forecast19 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Jordan Peterson becomes a Roman Catholic (ends 2030)

75.7%

Yes

24.3%

Community forecast10 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the roman catholic church permit the ordination of trans male priests by 2030?

91.5%

Yes

8.5%

Community forecast13 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Is Jimmy Carter the second coming of Christ?

69y

99%

Yes

Community forecast10 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?

5mo

Peru

96%

Argentina

89%

Uruguay

79%

+9 more outcomes

49 • Low qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$187.9K

24h Vol$0

KALSHI

Matt Dillahunty will come to know Jesus personally by 2035

93.5%

Yes

6.5%

Community forecast12 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Shechita banned in Canada by EOY 2026?

5mo

93.8%

Yes

6.2%

Community forecast5 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will any American diocese break communion with the Roman Catholic Church before 2030?

88.3%

Yes

11.7%

Community forecast11 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Pope Leo XIV visit first the U.S. or Ukraine?

U.S.

+3.9%55%

Ukraine

-3.9%45%

Community forecast25 forecastersType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Roman Catholic Church allow priests to perform same-sex marriages before 2075?

48y

58.9%

Yes

41.1%

Community forecast28 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the next pope visit the United States by the end of 2026?

5mo

89.6%

Yes

10.4%

Community forecast27 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be a non-trivially supported American antipope before 2060?

33y

67.7%

Yes

32.3%

Community forecast14 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Jews destroy Al-Aqsa Mosque to Build The Third Tempel

5mo

94.6%

Yes

5.4%

Community forecast8 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Donald Trump post an image of himself as the prophet Muhammad?

89%

Yes

11%

Community forecast192 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

[ACX 2026] Will restrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church be loosened during 2026?

5mo

85.1%

Yes

14.9%

Community forecast15 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If the US confirms aliens exist, will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

5mo

98.4%

Yes

1.6%

Community forecast21 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Taylor Swift meet with Pope Leo XIV before 2027?

5mo

94%

Yes

40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$20.6K

24h Vol$0

KALSHI

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

5mo

88.5%

Yes

11.5%

Community forecast46 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?

92.1%

Yes

7.9%

Community forecast108 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Jesus return on November 25 2026

4mo

99%

Yes

Community forecast7 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Trump post another religious image deifying himself?

Yes

77.3%

22.7%

Community forecast261 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which of the following papacy-related events will occur first?

474y

None of the above happens by 2500

46.8%

Another pope uses the papal name Peter

20.9%

A female pope is elected

20.8%

+1 more outcomes

Community forecast13 forecastersType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Scientology Run Prop Bets [ADD ANSWERS]

5mo

Someone gets arrested

100%

Charges get pressed

94.2%

Someone cosplays as Satan

50%

+1 more outcomes

Community forecast9 forecastersType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will a Muslim Majority Country Lose Its Majority Before 2040?

13y

Yes

63%

37%

Community forecast20 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will jesus respawn before 2027????

5mo

95%

Yes

Community forecast12 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be a significant antipope by EOY 2040?

14y

76.6%

Yes

23.4%

Community forecast9 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?

2.0%5mo

-0.0%63%

Yes

+0.0%38%

24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market

Total Vol$268.9

24h Vol$0

POLYMARKET

Will Jesus return before the year 2030?

96.2%

Yes

3.8%

Community forecast18 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will Jesus Christ return (the second coming)

24y

Never

+1.3%79.4%

Other

+1.1%12.9%

After Jan 2 2030 but before Jan 1 2050

+0.5%5.4%

+2 more outcomes

Community forecast26 forecastersType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? [actually]

5mo

99%

Yes

Community forecast38 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Whose attacking the Holy Land?

8mo

Revolutionary Army

-8.1%61.4%

Black Beard Pirates

+6.8%30.9%

Both

+1.3%7.7%

+1 more outcomes

Community forecast48 forecastersType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How long will Pope Leo XIV reign?

28y

Between 10 and 30 years

55.7%

Between 3 and 10 years

30.2%

30 years or longer

+4 more outcomes

Community forecast16 forecastersType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be a new religious movement in the USA that achieves 10,000+ followers before 2036?

53.3%

Yes

46.7%

Community forecast9 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will a Jewish Third Temple be built in Jerusalem by January 1, 2030?

86%

Yes

14%

Community forecast11 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Saint Augustine vs Thomas Aquinas (2025-2035)

Yes

62.8%

37.2%

Community forecast1 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

By Aug 26, 2026 (8/26/26), will I refer at least one person to a rehab ministry? (I'm an evangelist.)

30d

58.8%

Yes

41.2%

Community forecast4 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Vatican III in 2026?

97%

Yes

24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market

Total Vol$10.3

24h Vol$0

POLYMARKET

Pope to allow women to preach masses by the end of 2026?

5mo

96%

Yes

28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market

Total Vol$0.1

24h Vol$0

FUTUUR