Religion
114 markets tracked all-time for Religion, settled ones included. A market can appear under several topics.
Open Markets
104
Total Volume
$65,982,860
24h Volume
$25,923
Total Liquidity
$674,075
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
3mo
99%
1%
High quality (89)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$65.6M
24h Vol$18.2K
POLYMARKET
Will California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
20.0 pt (24h)21d
90%
-20.0pt10%
Medium quality (65)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$12.3K
24h Vol$7.6K
KALSHI
What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
17.0 pt (24h)3mo
92%
88%
88%
+9 more outcomes
Medium quality (50)Wide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$192K
24h Vol$69
KALSHI
Who will the next Pope be?
0.8 pt (24h)
5%
-0.8pt4%
4%
+4 more outcomes
Medium quality (59)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$137.2K
24h Vol$5
KALSHI
Will Taylor Swift meet with Pope Leo XIV before 2027?
3mo
95%
5%
Low quality (≤49)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$20.7K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
Will the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?
0.5 pt (24h)3mo
-0.5pt89.1%
+0.5pt10.9%
Low quality (≤49)Moderate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$927.7
24h Vol—
POLYMARKET
Vatican III in 2026?
91%
9%
Low quality (33)Wide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$10.3
24h Vol—
POLYMARKET
Restrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church: loosened in 2026?
3mo
81%
19%
Low quality (33)Spread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$3.6
24h Vol—
FUTUURPope to allow women to preach masses by the end of 2026?
3mo
96%
4%
Low quality (31)Spread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0.1
24h Vol—
FUTUUR
Will Trump post another religious image deifying himself?
2y
70%
30%
Community forecast263 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will the Pope excommunicate JD Vance before 2028?
1y
96%
4%
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITGutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)
1y
55.3%
44.7%
Community forecast18 forecastersType: binary
19 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the next pope convene Vatican 3?
78.9%
21.1%
Community forecast12 forecastersType: binary
21 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSCatholic Church in Germany ordains women before Christmas 2028?
2y
85.7%
14.3%
Community forecast12 forecastersType: binary
21 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will the Catholic and Eastern Orthodox Churches reconcile before 2050?
82.6%
17.4%
Community forecast20 forecastersType: binary
22 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill membership in the LDS church decline YoY in any year between now and 2030
4y
76.6%
23.4%
Community forecast46 forecastersType: binary
59 minutes agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?
3mo
88%
12%
Community forecast21 forecastersType: binary
1 hour agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
What percentage of humans will follow Islam in 2100?
73%
27%
Community forecast5 forecastersType: binary
3 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill there be a trend spike for the term "Animism" before 2035?
8y
86.7%
13.3%
Community forecast8 forecastersType: binary
4 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028
1y
94.2%
5.8%
Community forecast8 forecastersType: binary
5 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Scientology loses IRS Tax-exempt status
2y
79.2%
20.8%
Community forecast16 forecastersType: binary
5 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Joe Rogan convert to Islam by the end of 2030?
4y
95.6%
4.4%
Community forecast20 forecastersType: binary
5 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Jesus Christ return in 2026?
3mo
99%
1%
Community forecast44 forecastersType: binary
6 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Pope Leo XIV attend a professional sports game in the USA?
3mo
95%
5%
Community forecast38 forecastersType: binary
9 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will the LDS Church (Mormons) allow for gay marriage in their temple before the end of 2030?
4y
95.2%
4.8%
Community forecast19 forecastersType: binary
9 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Jose Luis Ricon have an arranged marriage?
75%
25%
Community forecast7 forecastersType: binary
10 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the next pope be Italian?
2y
66%
34%
Community forecast10 forecastersType: binary
10 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will Jose Luis ricon get a tradwife by 2044
18y
54.8%
45.2%
Community forecast1 forecastersType: binary
10 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSPope Leo XIV issues a document addressing birth control teaching by December 31, 2026?
3mo
79.3%
20.7%
Community forecast18 forecastersType: binary
10 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Jesus Christ return by 2030 (according to the pope)?
3y
98.4%
1.6%
Community forecast25 forecastersType: binary
11 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will the Catholic Church train a PopeGPT and endorse it as doctrinally sound by end of 2027?
3mo
95%
5%
Community forecast53 forecastersType: binary
13 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSBart Ehrman Will Convert to Esoteric/Gnostic Christianity before 2030?
3y
90.3%
9.7%
Community forecast3 forecastersType: binary
14 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSDonald Trump becomes a Pope-like figure?
9y
91.3%
8.7%
Community forecast30 forecastersType: binary
15 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
What percentage of humans will follow Christianity in 2100?
70.8%
29.2%
Community forecast11 forecastersType: binary
15 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS[ACX 2026] Will restrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church be loosened during 2026?
3mo
88.6%
11.4%
Community forecast18 forecastersType: binary
13 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Christian in the U.S. drop below 60% by the end of 2026?
3mo
80.7%
19.3%
Community forecast55 forecastersType: binary
16 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Joe Schmid be Catholic end of 2026?
3mo
93.7%
6.3%
Community forecast11 forecastersType: binary
13 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the percentage of Americans identifying as Christian drop below 20% before 2100?
63%
37%
Community forecast4 forecastersType: binary
3 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill jesus respawn before 2027????
3mo
94.5%
5.5%
Community forecast15 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSIs Donald Trump the Antichrist?
2y
73.9%
26.1%
Community forecast20 forecastersType: binary
7 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSIn 100 years (2123) will Trump worship will be a thing?
75.1%
24.9%
Community forecast16 forecastersType: binary
8 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will the first ASI proclaim Christianity true?
3mo
90%
10%
Community forecast55 forecastersType: binary
8 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the second coming of Jesus Christ happen within the next 100 years?
96%
4%
Community forecast15 forecastersType: binary
9 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill "Church Planting: When Venture Capital Finds Jesus" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
4mo
84.1%
15.9%
Community forecast2 forecastersType: binary
9 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Bentham's Bulldog be Catholic end of 2026?
3mo
88.9%
11.1%
Community forecast7 forecastersType: binary
23 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years?
2y
96.1%
3.9%
Community forecast54 forecastersType: binary
11 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will Alex O'Connor convert to Christinanity before 2027?
3mo
91.9%
8.1%
Community forecast18 forecastersType: binary
11 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?
2y
96.9%
3.1%
Community forecast192 forecastersType: binary
53 minutes agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS