Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
0.1 pt (24h)2mo
Yes1%-0.1pt
No99%+0.1pt
High quality (88)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$66.7M
24h Vol$14.4K
POLYMARKETReligion
275 markets tracked all-time for Religion, settled ones included. A market can appear under several topics.
Open Markets
260
Total Volume
$67,290,959
24h Volume
$15,584
Liquidity + open interest
$650,642
POLYMARKET
What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
9.0 pt (24h)2mo
Argentina+9.0pt96%Peru-2.0pt92%Uruguay90%+9 more outcomes
Medium quality (65)Tight spreadHigh open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$229.9K
24h Vol$269
KALSHI
Sydney Sweeney confirmed converted to Judaism in 2026?
1.4 pt (24h)2mo
Yes5%-1.4pt
No95%+1.4pt
Medium quality (72)Tight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$24.6K
24h Vol$884.5
POLYMARKET
Who will the next Pope be?
Luis Antonio Tagle15%Pietro Parolin6%Pierbattista Pizzaballa5%+4 more outcomes
Low quality (≤49)Tight spreadHigh open interest
Total Vol$146.2K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
Will Taylor Swift meet with Pope Leo XIV before 2027?
Before Jan 1, 2027
2mo
Yes4%
No96%
Low quality (≤49)Moderate spreadMedium open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$22K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
Restrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church: loosened in 2026?
2mo
Yes10%
No90%
Low quality (33)Spread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$106.7
24h Vol—
FUTUUR
Vatican III in 2026?
2mo
Yes14%
No86%
Low quality (32)Wide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$17.5
24h Vol—
POLYMARKET
Pope to allow women to preach masses by the end of 2026?
2mo
Yes4%
No96%
Low quality (31)Spread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0.1
24h Vol—
FUTUUR
Will Trump post another religious image deifying himself?
2y
Yes72.3%
No27.7%
Community forecast263 forecastersType: binary
50 minutes agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill there be a trend spike for the term "Maitreya" before 2030?
3y
Yes42%
No58%
Community forecast4 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?
18d
Yes3.6%
No96.4%
Community forecast49 forecastersType: binary
1 hour agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
AI Cult exists by 2027
6mo
Yes75.9%
No24.1%
Community forecast182 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSPope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?
2mo
Yes12.5%
No87.5%
Community forecast51 forecastersType: binary
6 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the next pope visit the United States by the end of 2026?
2mo
Yes7.8%
No92.2%
Community forecast28 forecastersType: binary
7 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?
2y
Yes2.2%
No97.8%
Community forecast192 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Where will the 11th U.S. National Eucharistic Congress in 2029 take place?
3y
+9 more outcomes
Community forecastType: multiple choice
3 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich religions will have gained in total self-identified practicing members from 2026 to 2057?
+1 more outcomes
Community forecastType: multiple choice
2 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSGutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)
1y
Yes46.6%
No53.4%
Community forecast21 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhen will the next ecumenical council of the Roman Catholic Church be held?
+7 more outcomes
Community forecast1 forecastersType: multiple choice
9 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
If Hildebrand, the antipope elected by Bugnolo, is consecrated, which episcopal lineage will the consecrator have?
2mo
+4 more outcomes
Community forecast2 forecastersType: multiple choice
16 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWanneer gaat Timon zich bekeren?
9y
+7 more outcomes
Community forecast2 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETS
When is a millennial (or younger) Catholic pope first elected?
2040s33.7%2030s11.5%2020s1%+1 more outcomes
Community forecast2 forecastersType: multiple choice
16 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
When is a zoomer (or younger) Catholic pope first elected?
2040s13.9%2030s5.4%2020s2%+1 more outcomes
Community forecast2 forecastersType: multiple choice
8 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich biblical prophecy will be most frequently cited as being fulfilled by world events before January 1, 2027?
2mo
+14 more outcomes
Community forecast3 forecastersType: multiple choice
4 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSCome Judgment Day, will Jose Luis Ricon enter hell due to being heathen?
Yes50%
No50%
Community forecastType: binary
6 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill god is real?
2mo
Yes50%
No50%
Community forecastType: binary
50 minutes agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSSpecial ecclesial assembly approved by Francis held in October 2028?
2y
Yes50%
No50%
Community forecastType: binary
7 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Domenic Denicola attend a Mormon Transhumanism Association (MTA) conference by EOY2030?
4y
Yes50%
No50%
Community forecastType: binary
10 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill "Why You Don’t Believe in Xhosa Prophecies" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
1y
Yes14.2%
No85.8%
Community forecast1 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Andres Gomez Emilson or Joscha Bach watch the crucifixion of Jesus Christ while high on 5-MEO-DMT by EOY2045
19y
Yes45.2%
No54.8%
Community forecast1 forecastersType: binary
1 hour agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat will be the papal name of Leo XIV's successor?
+9 more outcomes
Community forecast8 forecastersType: multiple choice
13 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich religion will I identify with at the end of the year?
2mo
+6 more outcomes
Community forecast5 forecastersType: multiple choice
14 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?
2mo
Yes90.6%
No9.4%
Community forecast25 forecastersType: binary
5 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Barton Rhodes or Alex Zhu watch the crucifixion of Jesus Christ while high on psychedelics by EOY2045
19y
Yes43.1%
No56.9%
Community forecast1 forecastersType: binary
1 hour agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Lillian Tara have her own personal army/cult by EOY 2032?
6y
Yes50%
No50%
Community forecast1 forecastersType: binary
10 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Vincent Weisser be canonized as a saint? (St. Weisser)
Yes20%
No80%
Community forecast1 forecastersType: binary
12 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill basedbeffjezos end up crucified? (nailed to the cross)
Yes40.5%
No59.5%
Community forecast2 forecastersType: binary
1 hour agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill there be more than 500,000,000 religious Buddhists worldwide on 1st January 2030?
3y
Yes48.2%
No51.8%
Community forecast2 forecastersType: binary
1 hour agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the LDS (Mormon) Church publicly report membership numbers through 2030?
4y
Yes90.1%
No9.9%
Community forecast2 forecastersType: binary
1 hour agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill @repligate/janus have an arranged marriage?
Yes47.9%
No52.1%
Community forecast3 forecastersType: binary
50 minutes agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Ted Cruz meet Sadhguru?
Yes45.3%
No54.7%
Community forecast3 forecastersType: binary
8 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the "core" Jewish population of the UK be greater than that of Canada by 2030?
3y
Yes31.6%
No68.4%
Community forecast3 forecastersType: binary
50 minutes agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill "Why Latter-day Saints Have Strong Communities" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
3mo
Yes13.5%
No86.5%
Community forecast3 forecastersType: binary
10 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Jose Luis Ricon be beatified?
Yes5.8%
No94.2%
Community forecast3 forecastersType: binary
1 hour agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the Hindu population of the UK be more than 4 times the Jewish population of the UK by 2030?
3y
Yes70%
No30%
Community forecast4 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill "Will Jesus Christ return in an election year?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
3mo
Yes17.7%
No82.3%
Community forecast4 forecastersType: binary
50 minutes agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the Catholic Church canonize Jose Luis Ricon as a saint by 2100?
Yes5.6%
No94.4%
Community forecast4 forecastersType: binary
1 hour agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSAre ancient afterlife myths interpretations of near death experiences?
Yes61.3%
No38.7%
Community forecast5 forecastersType: binary
10 hours agoMANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS