Will "Why You Don’t Believe in Xhosa Prophecies" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will "Why You Don’t Believe in Xhosa Prophecies" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??

Manifold Markets prices No at 85.8% as of October 24, 2026.

When does Will "Why You Don’t Believe in Xhosa Prophecies" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? resolve?

Will "Why You Don’t Believe in Xhosa Prophecies" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2028.

How is Will "Why You Don’t Believe in Xhosa Prophecies" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

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POLYMARKET

Elon Musk # tweets October 24 - October 26, 2026?

• 65-89+3.0pt42.4%
• 40-64-1.5pt35.4%
• 90-114-1.5pt14.1%

+7 more outcomes

Total Vol

$99.5K

24h Vol

$76.2K

POLYMARKET

Paris curfew effectively lifted by which date?

• November 30-0.5pt98%
• November 7-1.0pt85%
• October 31+0.5pt53%

+2 more outcomes

KALSHI

Maine lobster landings in 2026

• Above 55 million pounds-1.0pt94.5%
• Above 60 million pounds89.5%
• Above 65 million pounds-1.0pt85.5%

POLYMARKET

Turner Prize 2026 Winner

• Kira Freije-7.0pt34.7%
• Tanoa Sasraku+4.5pt24.5%
• Marguerite Humeau-0.9pt20.4%

+1 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Lyon curfew effectively lifted by which date?

• November 7-1.0pt88%
• October 31+12.5pt61%
• October 24-0.8pt0%

+1 more outcomes

KALSHI

TSA passenger screenings on Oct 24, 2026

• At least 2,000,000 passengers94%
• At least 2,100,000 passengers53%
• At least 2,200,000 passengers4.5%

• What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
• Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
• Bayeux Tapestry back in France by which date?
• Which firearm will receive the most votes in Idaho's State Gun advisory question?
• Graham Platner divorce by October 31?
• Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
• US test scores in Math in 2026?
• League City, Texas passes ballot measure approving the police use of Flock Cameras?
• Will Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?