Current community forecast
Yes 55.3%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleFeb 27, 26, 12:20 AM UTCNov 1, 27, 9:41 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Will Duffy is an American pastor and entrepreneur who organized and largely funded an expedition to Antarctica called “The Final Experiment” in December of 2024.
- The purpose of the expedition was to settle the online debate about the shape of the Earth by observing the motion of the Sun.
- Duffy was and remains convinced that the Earth is a globe, and he invited several people who believed that the Earth is a flat disk (colloquially “flat earthers”) to join the expedition.
- Duffy correctly predicted a 360-degree transit of the Sun above the horizon for a full 24-hour period during the trip to Antarctica (an observation consistent with the globe model of the Earth which has no apparent explanation on the flat earth model), and he expressed hopes that this evidence would cause people to reject their erroneous flat earth beliefs.
- Will Duffy also currently describes himself as a young-earth creationist.
- He is not convinced that biological evolution from a common ancestor is the most probable explanation for the diverse proliferation of life on Earth.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 55% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below) resolve?
- GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below) is scheduled to resolve on November 1, 2027.
- How is GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will Duffy is an American pastor and entrepreneur who organized and largely funded an expedition to Antarctica called “The Final Experiment” in December of 2024.