KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Luis Antonio Tagle 6%+0.6ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
60 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$173.4
Liquidity
$26.8K
High liquiditySpread
1.7 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jul 18, 25, 2:00 PM UTCJan 1, 70, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiWill Pope Leo XIV attend a professional sports game in the USA?
Manifold MarketsWill Taylor Swift meet with Pope Leo XIV before 2027?
KalshiWill Peter Thiel become the next Pope? (Pope Thiel)
Manifold MarketsWill the Pope excommunicate JD Vance before 2028?
PredictItDonald Trump becomes a Pope-like figure?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the named outcome becomes the first person elected Pope before Jan 1, 2070, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Religion
POLYMARKETWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
- No99%
- Yes1%
- Total Vol
- $65.6M
- 24h Vol
- $10.1K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No82%
- Yes+11.0pt18%
- Total Vol
- $12.8K
- 24h Vol
- $499.5
KALSHIWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
- Peru+4.0pt96%
- Argentina88%
- Uruguay88%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $192.2K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?
- No-3.0pt87%
- Yes+3.0pt13%
- Total Vol
- $927.7
- 24h Vol
- —
POLYMARKETVatican III in 2026?
- No+0.1pt91%
- Yes-0.1pt9%
- Total Vol
- $10.3
- 24h Vol
- —
PREDICTITWill the Pope excommunicate JD Vance before 2028?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Total Vol
- $785
- 24h Vol
- —
- Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?
- Restrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church: loosened in 2026?
- Will Trump post another religious image deifying himself?
- GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)
- Will the next pope convene Vatican 3?
- Catholic Church in Germany ordains women before Christmas 2028?
- Will the Catholic and Eastern Orthodox Churches reconcile before 2050?
- Will membership in the LDS church decline YoY in any year between now and 2030
- Will @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will the next Pope be??
- Kalshi prices Luis Antonio Tagle at 6% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Who will the next Pope be? resolve?
- Who will the next Pope be? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2070.
- How is Who will the next Pope be? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the named outcome becomes the first person elected Pope before Jan 1, 2070, then the market resolves to Yes.