Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.3%
Forecasters
30
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleApr 30, 25, 12:47 AM UTCDec 26, 35, 1:29 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiWho will the next Pope be?
KalshiRules
If Donald Trump ever serves as a figure that I personally consider to be a Pope, Antipope, Pseudopope, or Funko Pope, then this market resolves Yes.
- For ambiguous cases, this must be a new role invented explicitly or obviously for Trump; it's not enough to point out that some evangelical church has previousy said they consider him a prophet.
- The role must have a title and Trump must either formally fulfill or verbally accept the title.
- Once accepted, the title need only have one obligation that Trump fulfills before I resolve Yes.
- It can be a special prayer meeting that he attends as Pope, a special hat he gets to wear, or any other symbolic gesture beyond the title itself.
- Or, if Trump ever denounces the catholic church/current Pope while in Avignon, France, this market will imemediately resolve Yes.
