Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.3%
Forecasters
30
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleApr 30, 25, 12:47 AM UTCDec 26, 35, 1:29 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsWho will the next Pope be?
KalshiWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiWill Taylor Swift meet with Pope Leo XIV before 2027?
KalshiRules
If Donald Trump ever serves as a figure that I personally consider to be a Pope, Antipope, Pseudopope, or Funko Pope, then this market resolves Yes.
- For ambiguous cases, this must be a new role invented explicitly or obviously for Trump; it's not enough to point out that some evangelical church has previousy said they consider him a prophet.
- The role must have a title and Trump must either formally fulfill or verbally accept the title.
- Once accepted, the title need only have one obligation that Trump fulfills before I resolve Yes.
- It can be a special prayer meeting that he attends as Pope, a special hat he gets to wear, or any other symbolic gesture beyond the title itself.
- Or, if Trump ever denounces the catholic church/current Pope while in Avignon, France, this market will imemediately resolve Yes.
Open markets
US Politics
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- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
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+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $808.4K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
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- $701M
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- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
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+4 more outcomes
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- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $342.3K
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.2%
- Marco Rubio20.2%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt4.8%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
- $338.6K
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Donald Trump becomes a Pope-like figure??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Donald Trump becomes a Pope-like figure? resolve?
- Donald Trump becomes a Pope-like figure? is scheduled to resolve on December 26, 2035.
- How is Donald Trump becomes a Pope-like figure? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If Donald Trump ever serves as a figure that I personally consider to be a Pope, Antipope, Pseudopope, or Funko Pope, then this market resolves Yes.