If Trump becomes president, will Florida constitutionalize abortion?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 62.3%
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13
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
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Updated 13 hours ago
StaleApr 2, 24, 2:43 AM UTCNov 3, 26, 7:59 AM UTC
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the Florida Supreme Court voted to ban abortion, but also cleared a path for a ballot proposition that would guarantee abortion rights in the state constitution.
- According to a recent poll, the ballot proposition has 62% support (it needs 60% to pass).
- The Biden campaign released a memo on the same day (today) characterizing Florida as “winnable” because of political momentum in the state over the abortion issue.
- Meanwhile Trump, who has won Florida in two presidential elections, has said he supports an abortion ban, albeit not as strict as the one currently in effect, but also that he respects states’ rights, and presumably a ballot proposition.
- Market closes just before the 2026 midterms.
- This market resolves NA if Trump doesn’t win.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If Trump becomes president, will Florida constitutionalize abortion??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 62% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If Trump becomes president, will Florida constitutionalize abortion? resolve?
- If Trump becomes president, will Florida constitutionalize abortion? is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is If Trump becomes president, will Florida constitutionalize abortion? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: the Florida Supreme Court voted to ban abortion, but also cleared a path for a ballot proposition that would guarantee abortion rights in the state constitution.