If Donald Trump becomes president again in 2024-2028, will he illegally remain commander-in-chief in 2031?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionGeopolitics2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.7%
Forecasters
35
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleAug 26, 23, 5:27 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
The commander-in-chief of the US Army is the president, and this is basically meant to be an objective measure of the US presidency that would work even if the legal/formal power works differently in the future.
- If I understand correctly, Donald Trump would mainly remain president if he overthrows the current democratic system in some way?
- I assume it might lead to some sort of fracturing, so I will specifically consider the largest fragment of the military.
- Resolution criteria
- As a big picture, in order for this market to resolve:
- Donald Trump must become president during 2024-2028, otherwise the market resolves N/A.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If Donald Trump becomes president again in 2024-2028, will he illegally remain commander-in-chief in 2031??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If Donald Trump becomes president again in 2024-2028, will he illegally remain commander-in-chief in 2031? resolve?
- If Donald Trump becomes president again in 2024-2028, will he illegally remain commander-in-chief in 2031? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is If Donald Trump becomes president again in 2024-2028, will he illegally remain commander-in-chief in 2031? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The commander-in-chief of the US Army is the president, and this is basically meant to be an objective measure of the US presidency that would work even if the legal/formal power works differently in the future.