If Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 11:51 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 50.3%
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87
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
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Updated 4 hours ago
StaleFeb 19, 25, 4:18 AM UTCNov 9, 28, 5:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiTexas Senate winner?
KalshiRules
Resolves N/A if he does not become constitutionally eligible for a third term by the filing deadlines in states that comprise ≥270 EVs for the 2028 election
- Update 2025-09-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Constitutional eligibility will be assessed on election day, rather than at state filing deadlines.
