If Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 51.7%
Forecasters
86
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleFeb 19, 25, 4:18 AM UTCNov 9, 28, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves N/A if he does not become constitutionally eligible for a third term by the filing deadlines in states that comprise ≥270 EVs for the 2028 election
- Update 2025-09-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Constitutional eligibility will be assessed on election day, rather than at state filing deadlines.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 52% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win? resolve?
- If Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win? is scheduled to resolve on November 9, 2028.
- How is If Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves N/A if he does not become constitutionally eligible for a third term by the filing deadlines in states that comprise ≥270 EVs for the 2028 election