If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?
One-OffUS PoliticsPoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 82.4%
Forecasters
401
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJan 24, 24, 4:35 AM UTCNov 8, 28, 6:32 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
In Ben Shapiro and Destiny's debate, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5I6A2cukme8 Ben Shapiro claim that there is 0% chance that Trump would try to run for a third term US president, while Destiny claim that there's 100% chance that Trump would try to run for a third term.
- Who is right?
- I use a rather broad definition of 'attempt' here.
- Resolves to 'Yes' if there is any attempt by Trump to run for a third term as president.
- This includes public statements, fundraising efforts, or other indications suggesting he is considering a run for a third term.
- Resolves NA if Trump did not become president in 2024
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 82% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032? resolve?
- If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032? is scheduled to resolve on November 8, 2028.
- How is If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: In Ben Shapiro and Destiny's debate, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5I6A2cukme8 Ben Shapiro claim that there is 0% chance that Trump would try to run for a third term US president, while Destiny claim that there's 100% chance that Trump would try to run for a third term.