Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave 92.1%Leader of 7 outcomes
Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave 92.1%Forecasters
203
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJun 28, 24, 4:42 AM UTCDec 20, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
If Trump loses the 2024 election, or e.g. has a heart attack immediately after winning, "Trump isn't elected or fails to take office" resolves YES and all other options resolve NO.
- If Trump is still in power in February 2029, even if it's temporary because of an emergency or something like that, "the named outcome" resolves YES and "the named outcome" resolves NO.
- If Trump is replaced by a Republican who he has strong influence over, that still counts as leaving office, unless it's incredibly clear to international observers that it was a total sham election to appoint a puppet.
- If there's substantial ambiguity around an option, it will resolve to a percentage based on my judgement.
- Update 2025-03-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Conspiracy Theories Do Not Count
- Claims by conspiracy theorists or groups (e.g. QAnon) that Trump is secretly POTUS will not affect the resolution.
