Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?
GeopoliticsAIOne-OffEuropeRegulationChinaPolitics7yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 76.8%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMar 24, 26, 2:41 PM UTCDec 31, 33, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2034, there is a formal, publicly announced international agreement or coordinated policy that constitutes a moratorium on frontier AGI development, meeting the criteria below.
- The concept of “moratorium” here refers to a halt or prohibition on training or deploying frontier AI systems at or beyond certain established threshold (may it be capabilies, scale, speed, or something else meanigfully correlated with general capabilities), combined with serious enforcement mechanisms, not merely voluntary guidelines or safety recommendations.
- Core Resolution Criteria
- The market resolves YES if ALL of the following conditions are met:
- Substance: Actual Moratorium
- A policy, treaty, or coordinated set of national policies explicitly aims to:
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 77% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033? resolve?
- Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2033.
- How is Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2034, there is a formal, publicly announced international agreement or coordinated policy that constitutes a moratorium on frontier AGI development, meeting the criteria below.