Will there be a serious lawsuit against AGI development because x-risk, in the West before 2030?
ChinaOne-OffCrime & Justice3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 61%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleDec 12, 24, 3:49 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Taken seriously by the court
- Specifically cite global catastrophic risk, risk to humanity, or something equivalent
- May be against a company, person, or government
- Must be against a meaningful attempt to build AGI (current frontier labs count).
- A lawsuit that a government that isn't developing AGI isn't doing enough to govern it, doesn't count.
- Doesn't have to be in a US court, but China is excluded.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a serious lawsuit against AGI development because x-risk, in the West before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 61% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be a serious lawsuit against AGI development because x-risk, in the West before 2030? resolve?
- Will there be a serious lawsuit against AGI development because x-risk, in the West before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will there be a serious lawsuit against AGI development because x-risk, in the West before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Taken seriously by the court