KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Election Day 20%-5.0ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.2
Liquidity
$52.1K
High liquiditySpread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Oct 25, 25, 2:00 PM UTCNov 7, 28, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a bill or proposal be brought to a vote, that would allow President Trump to run for a third term?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win?
Manifold MarketsDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketVenezuela leader end of 2026?
PolymarketRules
If Donald Trump has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBC
- The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency.
- Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement.
- The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed.
- Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify.
- Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt16%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $706.5M
- 24h Vol
- $839.7K
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+0.5pt90.1%
- Republican Party-1.1pt9.9%
- Total Vol
- $33.5M
- 24h Vol
- $738.3K
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Delcy Rodríguez+36.5pt52.1%
- Nicolás Maduro-38.6pt46.9%
- No Head of State-0.3pt1%
+13 more outcomes
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt18%
- Gavin Newsom-0.2pt16%
- Jon Ossoff16%
+48 more outcomes
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep59%
- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt30%
- Republicans sweep-1.2pt10%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $16.6M
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.2pt93%
- Yes-1.2pt7%
- Total Vol
- $22.5M
- 24h Vol
- $554.9K
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- What will Trump say this week?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump run for a third term??
- Kalshi prices Before Election Day at 20% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will Trump run for a third term? resolve?
- Will Trump run for a third term? is scheduled to resolve on November 7, 2028.
- How is Will Trump run for a third term? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Donald Trump has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.