Current community forecast
No 97.1%
Forecasters
35
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 57 minutes ago
LaggingOct 19, 23, 8:33 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Macron activates article 16 of the French constitution (exceptional powers) before April 2027
Manifold MarketsWill Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump run for a third term?
KalshiWill a Republican House or Senate Candidate say Donald Trump should run for a third term before Midterms Election Day?
Manifold MarketsWill Emmanuel Macron resign before the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsEmmanuel Macron to finish his presidential term in France?
FutuurRules
In France the constitution does not allow for a president to run for 3 terms in a row.
- The idea emerged that LREM, Macron's political party would promote a constitutional revision to allow Macron to run for a third term.
- The elections will take place in April/May 2027.
- So if before the end of 2026 the constitution has been changed, the answer will be YES.
- If not, the NO wins.
