Current community forecast
No 95%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jan 2, 26, 3:10 PM UTCMar 31, 27, 1:00 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves Yes, if, anytime before the end of day on March 31st 2027, Emmanuel Macron (french president) invokes article 16 of the french constitution, for any length of time.
- This article relates to exceptional powers, to be activated in case of a "serious and immediate threat to institutions, independence/territorial integrity, or the execution of international agreements".
- Resolves No otherwise at the end of year.
- Since article 16 must be "announced to the nation", which in our days is likely to be a TV speech, I don't foresee ambiguities in resolution.
- As long as the president announces the usage of article 16 in such address to the nation, this resolves Yes, even if later legal challenges or debate occurs regarding whether this was a legal invokation, which is any case is likely to occurs because this is constitutional lawyers' dream scenario to be relevant for once :p
- For reference, article 16 of the constitution (in French) :
