Current community forecast
No 94.7%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingDec 2, 24, 6:45 PM UTCJun 1, 27, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Emmanuel Macron to finish his presidential term in France?
FutuurWill Emmanuel Macron invoke Article 16 before the end of his mandate?
Manifold MarketsWill Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Emmanuel Macron ever become President of France again after his first two terms?
Manifold MarketsWill Emmanuel Macron change the French constitution to be able to run for a third term in a row?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump resign during his term?
KalshiRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve YES if Emmanuel Macron formally resigns from the office of President of France before the scheduled end of his term in May 2027.
- The market will resolve NO if Macron completes his term or if his presidency ends through other means (such as impeachment, death, or medical incapacity).
- For resolution purposes:
- A temporary transfer of power (such as during medical procedures) does not count as resignation
- The resignation must be formally accepted according to French constitutional procedures
