Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 82%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleFeb 26, 26, 7:12 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump run for a third term?
KalshiWill a bill or proposal be brought to a vote, that would allow President Trump to run for a third term?
Manifold MarketsWill a Republican House or Senate Candidate say Donald Trump should run for a third term before Midterms Election Day?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the House in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- Donald Trump is constitutionally barred from being elected to a third presidential term under the 22nd Amendment.
- This market resolves YES if Trump officially announces a candidacy for the 2028 presidential election (whether as a presidential or vice-presidential candidate).
- It resolves NO if he does not announce such a candidacy by the end of 2027.
- Resolution will be determined by official campaign announcements, FEC filings, or statements from Trump or his authorized representatives confirming intent to run.
- Since beginning his second term in January 2025, Trump has floated the possibility of seeking a third term upon the 2028 United States presidential election on November 7, 2028.