Will Trump's attempt to run for the 3rd term be blocked by court(s)?
PoliticsRegulationOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleMar 25, 26, 8:40 AM UTCJan 21, 29, 12:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolves once it's clear that either Trump is not running for the 3rd term (not going to try, or abandoned his attenmpt), or it's clear he was able to run without sufficient impediment to stop him.
- If Trump does not try to run for a 3rd term, resolves NO
- If Trump tries, but abandons the attempt before courts are involved, resolves NO
- If Trump successfully runs for the 3rd term, resolves NO
- A court decision that is overruled by a higher court does not count.
- A successful 3rd term run resolves NO, even if he loses - even if there are some court decisions that prevented him from being on a ballot in some states.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump's attempt to run for the 3rd term be blocked by court(s)??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 86% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Trump's attempt to run for the 3rd term be blocked by court(s)? resolve?
- Will Trump's attempt to run for the 3rd term be blocked by court(s)? is scheduled to resolve on January 21, 2029.
- How is Will Trump's attempt to run for the 3rd term be blocked by court(s)? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves once it's clear that either Trump is not running for the 3rd term (not going to try, or abandoned his attenmpt), or it's clear he was able to run without sufficient impediment to stop him.