Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 84%
Forecasters
458
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMar 31, 25, 2:57 PM UTCNov 30, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?
KalshiWill Trump's attempt to run for the 3rd term be blocked by court(s)?
Manifold MarketsDonald Trump attempts to withdraw from NATO
Manifold MarketsWill Lula's 3rd term in Brazil have above-average (>75%) congressional support?
Manifold MarketsWill the US officially declare war on Iran by which date?
PolymarketWhich countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if Donald Trump makes a serious effort to run for office.
- This means he takes legal steps towards running for office like filing with the FEC or he goes to court to argue that he should be allowed to run again.
- It is not necessary for this market that he actually succeeds in getting on the ballot.
- A serious attempt to get in is enough.
- However, If he got on the ballot anywhere this market would certainly resolve YES.
- If Trump dies before he made an effort but still could the market resolves N/A. Backing out due to health reasons will otherwise resolve as NO.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $808.4K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $342.3K
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.2%
- Marco Rubio20.2%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt4.8%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
- $338.6K
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Trump seriously attempts 3rd term in 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 84% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Trump seriously attempts 3rd term in 2028? resolve?
- Trump seriously attempts 3rd term in 2028? is scheduled to resolve on November 30, 2028.
- How is Trump seriously attempts 3rd term in 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if Donald Trump makes a serious effort to run for office.