Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 83.5%
Forecasters
466
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMar 31, 25, 2:57 PM UTCNov 30, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if Donald Trump makes a serious effort to run for office.
- This means he takes legal steps towards running for office like filing with the FEC or he goes to court to argue that he should be allowed to run again.
- It is not necessary for this market that he actually succeeds in getting on the ballot.
- A serious attempt to get in is enough.
- However, If he got on the ballot anywhere this market would certainly resolve YES.
- If Trump dies before he made an effort but still could the market resolves N/A. Backing out due to health reasons will otherwise resolve as NO.