Will Lula's 3rd term in Brazil have above-average (>75%) congressional support?
PoliticsYearlyElectionLatin America3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 56.2%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleNov 12, 22, 5:42 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 2:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Considering the latest account of support in Brazilian Chamber of Deputies according to Estadão's "Basômetro" when presidential term comes to an end - either on January 1st, 2027, as the electoral calendar dictates; or before, if there is an impeachment, resignation etc.
- Resolves as YES if the average congressional support considering the full term is above that, or NO otherwise.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Lula's 3rd term in Brazil have above-average (>75%) congressional support??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 56% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Lula's 3rd term in Brazil have above-average (>75%) congressional support? resolve?
- Will Lula's 3rd term in Brazil have above-average (>75%) congressional support? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is Will Lula's 3rd term in Brazil have above-average (>75%) congressional support? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Considering the latest account of support in Brazilian Chamber of Deputies according to Estadão's "Basômetro" when presidential term comes to an end - either on January 1st, 2027, as the electoral calendar dictates; or before, if there is an impeachment, resignation etc.