Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72.8%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleAug 31, 26, 1:45 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump's attempt to run for the 3rd term be blocked by court(s)?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump rename an ocean in 2026?
PolymarketWill Trump rename any ocean before October?
KalshiWill Trump attempt to defund CSPAN by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRules
If Trump takes a concrete step towards trying to rename an ocean, such as an executive order, trying to get Congress to pass a bill, or trying to put a provision in a larger bill, I'll resolve Yes.
- He has to at least attempt to use a lever of government to rename an ocean.
- I'll be fairly liberal for what I consider trying to rename it.
- Talking about it, joking about it, etc, like he has already done will not count.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump attempt to rename an ocean by the end of his term??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 73% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Trump attempt to rename an ocean by the end of his term? resolve?
- Will Trump attempt to rename an ocean by the end of his term? is scheduled to resolve on January 20, 2029.
- How is Will Trump attempt to rename an ocean by the end of his term? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If Trump takes a concrete step towards trying to rename an ocean, such as an executive order, trying to get Congress to pass a bill, or trying to put a provision in a larger bill, I'll resolve Yes.