Current community forecast
Yes 77.6%
Forecasters
181
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingFeb 8, 23, 8:02 PMMay 2, 27, 6:59 AM
Trends
Rules
NYTimes, Guardian, or 60 minutes reports on a cult which uses LLMs/AI or future AI system as a significant part of its practice, by May 1 2027.
- It's required that the report describe it as as a cult or "cult-like".
- Members are required to listen to / follow instructions of / report to an LLM/AI app/similar as part of their practice.
- Members have elevated respect for the output of a certain system/program which verges on religion.
Open markets
AI
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- October 31+0.9pt100%
- September 30+0.9pt100%
- September 15+1.3pt99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.4M
- 24h Vol
- $699.6K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-4.9pt58.3%
- ChatGPT+6.2pt24.1%
- Grok+1.0pt7.4%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.2M
POLYMARKETOpenAI's Astra released on?
- September 4+13.7pt20.8%
- September 5+15.3pt16.7%
- September 6+13.2pt14.6%
+27 more outcomes
POLYMARKETGPT-6 released by which date?
- October 31,+5.8pt100%
- November 30,+3.6pt100%
- December 31,+3.8pt100%
+10 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Before Oct 1, 2026+9.0pt99%
- Before Nov 1, 2026+6.0pt99%
- Before 2027+6.0pt99%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $705.1K
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude-12.0pt71.2%
- ChatGPT+8.0pt20.2%
- Gemini2.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $185.6K
- 24h Vol
- Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Which companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- When will any company achieve AGI?
- AI capability growth this year?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for AI Cult exists by 2027?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 78% as of September 4, 2026.
- When does AI Cult exists by 2027 resolve?
- AI Cult exists by 2027 is scheduled to resolve on May 2, 2027.
- How is AI Cult exists by 2027 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: NYTimes, Guardian, or 60 minutes reports on a cult which uses LLMs/AI or future AI system as a significant part of its practice, by May 1 2027.