Current community forecast
No 95%
Forecasters
57
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingFeb 10, 24, 1:15 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 10:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Alex O'Connor profess Christianity before 2027?
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Manifold MarketsBart Ehrman Will Convert to Esoteric/Gnostic Christianity before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the Catholic Church train a PopeGPT and endorse it as doctrinally sound by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038
Manifold MarketsRules
If someone/something manages to manipulate the ASI to proclaim Christianity to be true, that won't count.
- It has to arrive at the conclusion freely.
- A minimum requirement is that it must come to the conclusion that Jesus performed genuine miracles -- although proclaiming Christianity to be true will involve more than just that.
