Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 70.8%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleNov 25, 24, 7:03 PM UTCDec 31, 99, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What percentage of humans will follow Islam in 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill the percentage of Americans identifying as Christian drop below 20% before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
PolymarketWho will the next Pope be?
KalshiRules
Resolves as a percentage according to the most official figure I can find.
- For reference, this would be 31% as of 2024.
- Resolves NA if human civilization ends before then.
Open markets
ReligionPOLYMARKETWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
- No99%
- Yes1%
- Total Vol
- $65.6M
- 24h Vol
- $11.6K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No88%
- Yes-38.0pt12%
- Total Vol
- $12.2K
- 24h Vol
- $11.1K
KALSHIWho will the next Pope be?
- Luis Antonio Tagle5%
- Pietro Parolin-0.8pt4%
- Matteo Zuppi4%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $137.2K
- 24h Vol
- $5
PREDICTITWill the Pope excommunicate JD Vance before 2028?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Total Vol
- $784
- 24h Vol
- —
FUTUURRestrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church: loosened in 2026?
- No81%
- Yes19%
- Total Vol
- $3.6
- 24h Vol
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSGutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)
- Yes55.3%
- No44.7%
- Total Vol
- $3.2K
- 24h Vol
- —
- Will the next pope convene Vatican 3?
- Catholic Church in Germany ordains women before Christmas 2028?
- Will the Catholic and Eastern Orthodox Churches reconcile before 2050?
- Will membership in the LDS church decline YoY in any year between now and 2030
- Will @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?
- What percentage of humans will follow Islam in 2100?
- Will there be a trend spike for the term "Animism" before 2035?
- Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028
- Scientology loses IRS Tax-exempt status
- Will Joe Rogan convert to Islam by the end of 2030?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What percentage of humans will follow Christianity in 2100??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 71% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What percentage of humans will follow Christianity in 2100? resolve?
- What percentage of humans will follow Christianity in 2100? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2099.
- How is What percentage of humans will follow Christianity in 2100? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as a percentage according to the most official figure I can find.