Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 98.6%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleApr 3, 26, 8:32 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
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Manifold MarketsWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiWill the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "YES" if the Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs on or before December 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC.
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "NO".
- Resolution will be based on consensus across major international news outlets and religious authorities confirming the event.
- In the event of ambiguity or lack of verifiable reporting, the market will resolve to "NO".
- The Second Coming of Jesus Christ is a foundational belief in Christianity, based on various biblical prophecies regarding the return of Jesus to Earth.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No 99%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No, Jesus Christ will not return before 2027 99%
Open markets
ReligionPOLYMARKETWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
- No99%
- Yes1%
- Total Vol
- $65.6M
- 24h Vol
- $14.8K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No61%
- Yes+14.0pt39%
- Total Vol
- $4.8K
- 24h Vol
- $3.6K
KALSHIWho will the next Pope be?
- Pietro Parolin5%
- Luis Antonio Tagle5%
- Matteo Zuppi4%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $137.2K
- 24h Vol
- $75
POLYMARKETVatican III in 2026?
- No-0.1pt91%
- Yes+0.1pt9%
- Total Vol
- $10.3
- 24h Vol
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the Catholic and Eastern Orthodox Churches reconcile before 2050?
- No82.6%
- Yes17.4%
- Total Vol
- $619.1
- 24h Vol
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill membership in the LDS church decline YoY in any year between now and 2030
- No76.6%
- Yes23.4%
- Total Vol
- $4.9K
- 24h Vol
- —
- Will @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?
- Will there be a trend spike for the term "Animism" before 2035?
- Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028
- Scientology loses IRS Tax-exempt status
- Will Joe Rogan convert to Islam by the end of 2030?
- Will Jesus Christ return in 2026?
- Will Pope Leo XIV attend a professional sports game in the USA?
- Will the LDS Church (Mormons) allow for gay marriage in their temple before the end of 2030?
- Pope Leo XIV issues a document addressing birth control teaching by December 31, 2026?
- Will Jesus Christ return by 2030 (according to the pope)?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Jesus Christ return before 2027 resolve?
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Jesus Christ return before 2027 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria
- Where else is Will Jesus Christ return before 2027 listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket, Manifold Markets.