Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:15 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 99%
Forecasters
45
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleJun 2, 25, 12:05 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM PT, there is an event widely and credibly recognized as the arrival or return of Jesus Christ — whether as the Second Coming (in Christian eschatology), the First Coming (in the view of certain religions or groups), or a new messianic appearance.
- Such recognition must be confirmed by a consensus of credible global news outlets and at least one major world government or international authority.
- The event must involve a public, global acknowledgment that the individual is Jesus Christ or a direct fulfillment of the prophetic messianic role as traditionally understood in Abrahamic religions.
- If no such confirmation exists by the stated time, the market will resolve to “No.”
