What are the current odds for Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date??

Limitless prices September 30 at 50% as of October 11, 2026.

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Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics2mo

LimitlessCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataRoughly calibrated

Data quality warningNo live quotes

Data as of Oct 11, 2026, 11:31 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current implied probability

September 30 50%

Market quality

22 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

—

Liquidity

—

Liquidity unknown

Market data

Updated 4 minutes ago

Aug 25, 26, 3:30 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

the named outcome · the named outcome.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.