LimitlessCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataData quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Aug 25, 2026, 12:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
No 87.5%
Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Aug 25, 26, 12:02 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 13%. Quotes span about 1 percentage point between the widest venues.
CoinRithm reference 13% · 2 venues · 1 pt venue spread
Open markets
Geopolitics
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No+3.0pt87.1%
- Yes-3.0pt12.9%
- Total Vol
- $62.4M
- 24h Vol
- $2.4M
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-6.3pt70%
- October 31-11.5pt49%
- September 30-13.0pt25%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- August 22100%
- August 25100%
- August 31+1.4pt98%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31-0.5pt17%
- October 3111%
- September 306%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.8%
- New People (NL)-0.6pt19.2%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.1pt5%
POLYMARKETNext round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- March 31, 2027-5.0pt63%
- December-7.0pt46%
- September 30,-4.0pt18%
+8 more outcomes
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027??
- Limitless prices No at 88% as of August 28, 2026.
- When does Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? resolve?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? settled?
- Limitless settles this market as follows: <p>This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Where else is Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets, Polymarket.