LimitlessCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 82.5%
No 82.5%Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
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Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Aug 25, 26, 12:02 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
PolymarketUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 18%. The venue spread is about 1 percentage point.
CoinRithm reference 18% · 2 venues · 1 pt venue spread